On his return from Davos, George F Colony, the Founder and CEO of Forrester Research and a voice that commands respect on matters relating to the economy, wrote: “Clearly, no one knows what the hell is going on.” Confusion seems to have become an overriding sentiment as the world sets about sorting its way out through the mess.

At the same time, the sizes of the bailout packages being put to work are gigantic. The US stimulus plan that recently passed Congress is larger than the entire gross domestic product of Hong Kong, Singapore, New Zealand, Pakistan and Sri Lanka all bunched together with a few billions still left to spare.

The two together form a red alert. A bailout of this scale cannot be maneuvered with confusion. It needs sharp focus — with crystal clarity on the way forward.

To succeed, we will have to do two apparently contradictory things at the same time.

The first: looking in the rear view mirror for lessons from the past. We have to ensure we do not fall into the traps of the past; do not fall prey to risk camouflaged in complexity; do not get carried away with a numbers-driven story in place of a steady, sustainable journey.

The second — and more important — is to think afresh, to think unencumbered by baggage from the past. The future demands new, innovative, transformational solutions. As a case in point, the way my industry has showcased business value in the past was by highlighting customer benefits from IT solutions. A transformational solution today would instead show a customer how he could dramatically cut annual costs on IT and still derive far greater value from it.

Such solutions build bridges between diverse viewpoints, addressing customers from their side in a radically changed and intertwined landscape. This is the only way forward.

At Davos, some of the initiatives that emerged reflected innovative thinking — such as the Young Global leaders programme to develop a code of ethics, the intended reform of international financial architecture and deterrence of ‘beggar-thy-neighbour’ government policies. Reports on The Next Billions and Green Investing should also offer some new food for thought.

However, we need more, much more. We need fresh minds scanning tirelessly for new avenues of growth. We need conviction and leadership. And we need mavericks who are willing to step on the accelerator while the world slams on the brakes.

In our folklore, there is an adage that says nobody notices a man climbing onto an elephant but for some strange reason everybody sees him falling off. And this was before the age of Youtube! 

There is a lot of bad news doing the rounds. This is only natural at times like this as companies struggle to protect their bottom-lines and even stay afloat. But what is not natural is the ‘vulture culture’ that is gaining ground with people beginning to feed off such news to generate even more alarm. 

We have to be wary of this. Yes, bad news sells, but extraordinary times demand extraordinary rules. Rather than giving prominence to doomsday forecasters, all of us collectively need to focus in the right direction. And I mean everybody – be it media, analysts, investors, entrepreneurs, employees, government. 

This is the time to stay positive. The time to look for the hidden opportunity. And there are quite a few who are doing just that.

As a case in point, let us look at rural India. Many of us still believe that in India the term ‘rural economy’ implies agriculture. Would it surprise you to know that industry and services now constitute around 60% of income generated in rural India? And this share is only rising. Rural India has also traditionally been equated with poverty. Yet today, according to estimation by Omkar Goswani, people belonging to top 20% households in rural areas spend much more than an average urban household. 

Looking behind the veneer, these statistics tell us a story of pioneers finding emerging opportunities in the villages of India.

In HCL, we call it ‘blue ocean strategy’ – to look for opportunity where few people have ventured before. We are not the only ones. There are several companies that are still managing to splash bright colours on today’s bleak canvas by posting healthy growth rates.  

The fact is that India still promises ‘growth’ and even at the most pessimistic forecast of 5%, it is still higher than the Hindu rate of growth that had plagued the economy for years. In fact, the world is hoping it will lead the world out of its troubles.  I was reading an interview with Mr. Suman Bery, Director-General of the National Council of Applied Economic Research, in which he likened the present state of the economy to “a kind of step adjustment” between a period of unsustainable boom and another growth period. Unlike those who believe we are in a downward spiral like the rest of the world, respected economists like Mr Bery validate believers like us who are convinced that this is a ‘corrective’ stage; that our fundamentals are strong. We have a large domestic market to support a sound economic base, growing infrastructure, and the necessary policy support.

However, the critical piece in this jigsaw is our attitude, and that is what we have to protect from corrosion, guarding ourselves zealously against the Vulture Culture.